Here’s what “the world’s most accurate weather model” predicts for Irma. In recent years, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has the best forecast model in the world, often generating the best forecasts for hurricane tracks. In some cases, during Hurricane Harvey, it even exceeded the skill of human forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.  https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/    

This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations.

The National Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is still a fave go to for info and no hype http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

I’m hopeful.

UPDATE 9-7-17 at 3:07pm https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/destination-florida-how-confident-we-can-be-in-hurricane-irmas-track/

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