Aah Jim’s Don’t Panic Weather Update for 9-22-19 at 8am

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates in links below for important info about how hurricanes work. This morning he writes: This is the Sept 22 update from the Don’t Panic Weather Service. As we reported Jerry is heading north and out of harms way and another tropical storm Karen is following north in Jerry’s path. It is expected to run right across puerto rico but never build its winds to hurricane strength. In fact it is expected to barely impact puerto rico at this point. From there Karen heads north. Some models suggest Karen might make a strong left turn and head for Florida but at such a high latitude that this is unlikely. Once as far north as central Florida, most Atlantic storms want to head north or north east, not west which was why we doubted a projected track of Dorian hitting central Florida from almost due east of it. There is a storm off Africa we are watching that will likely build to hurricane strength and head west to the Caribbean. There are no projected paths at this point, but it is very common for hurricanes to follow similar paths to the preceding one which would have the new storm head west then sharply north, heading out into the mid Atlantic. In the coming month, the storms to watch will likely focus more on the Gulf of Mexico.

Andrea’s experiences with hurricanes and tropical storms
After what Hurricane Irma did to the Caribbean, we’ll be fine
Irma may hit near Miami Sunday, near Atlanta Monday
Here’s what the world’s most accurate weather model predicts for Irma
Mandatory evacuation, surviving Hurricane Frances, being the Vision Keeper
Be a vision keeper during the hurricanes
The phases of the moon drive hurricane behavior
Don’t add to the fear about hurricanes
Mild winter = mild hurricane season
Remember an active hurricane season doesn’t mean any will make landfall
I emailed news stations about a no cost plan for viewers to help with the hurricanes; global coherence
My Facebook posts for the Hurricane Matthew timeline

Aah Jim’s Don’t Panic Weather Update for 9-19-19 at 7am

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work. this morning he writes:
This is the Don’t Panic Weather Service reminding you that you are safe. Tropical storm Jerry is turning into a hurricane as expected and it is following the predicted path. There is a high assurance of this path because once a storm takes a northwest route in this part of the Atlantic it soon ends up so far north that the prevailing jetstream pulls it north and east as we saw with Dorian and Humberto. Each storm is turning north further and further from Florida’s coast which is a good trend. There are a couple of other small storms out in the Atlantic nothing to worry about at this point. Texas is getting flooded with heavy rains from another tropical storm that arose from the Gulf. As September flows into October expect the Atlantic storms to get fewer and weaker and we will likely see tropical storms and hurricanes appear off the coast of Mexico, build quickly in the warm gulf waters and threaten the gulf states and the west coast of Florida. By then the atlantic coast of florida will be out of harms way. Stay safe my friends, we will be watching your back out at sea…

Continue reading →

When your life falls apart, what to do next?

I watched 2 movies, very different but with similar premise: Up In The Air with George Clooney and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty with Ben Stiller and Kristen Wiig. Both begin with a large corporation downsizing, leaving hundreds of employees wondering how they’re going to make it after giving half their life to a company that just let them go. Half the sessions I do are callers in that same situation, asking for guidance, asking for their next step. Here are my thoughts.

It helps to have a few basic goals, skills to qualify you for those goals and to have a Plan B. Not everyone has the time to daydream about Plan B, what another life may look like. They may find themselves working several jobs to support a family with barely time to sleep. But if you’re gonna be successful in being flexible to navigate whatever life throws at you, you gotta get a Plan B. Continue reading →

Aah Jim’s Don’t Panic Weather Update for 9-12-19 at 8am

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work. this morning he writes:
“The latest reminder from the Don’t Panic Weather Update, the rain and gusts to Florida’s southeast has managed to avoid an area of high wind shear which would have shredded it. It’s marked in red on the map because its likely to begin cyclone formation. That sounds very scary but all it means is that it will start to rotate like a hurricane but without the high wind speeds. The current estimates are for it to remain in the 20 to 40 mph range in the next five days which by then it will likely have turned north and headed up the coast off shore of Florida. If it starts spinning it is called a tropical depression, if it generates winds of over 39 mph it will make it up to a tropical storm. It is already too close to Florida to build up much strength so none of the models are expecting it to become even a Cat 1 Hurricane but I will keep my eye on it and update you.” Continue reading →

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Wednesday 7am update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat. “

Jim writes: Good Morning Friends and Neighbors, this is the Dont Panic Weather Service giving you the 7am EDT update for Wed: If you are out there still waiting for the other shoe to drop, know this, the worst of the storm is past for all but Daytona and Jacksonville. When the winds are out of the West in your area the storm is off shore with its most powerful winds already past you. When the winds are out of the SW the storm is already North of you. Jacksonville and our neighbors on the st Johns River are the only ones I still have concerns for. The North and NW winds that did not produce much in the way of storm surge on the Ocean is backing up the flow of the St Johns River causing 2-3 ft floods above normal high water levels. Continue reading →

Aah Jim Bless those who go out of their way to comfort others in times of need

“Always look for the helpers,” Mr. Rogers told us. And I do. When a hurricane is off the coast, I make a point to go on Facebook and point out what silver linings I can to those enmeshed in storm prep. I don’t know the technical mechanics of how hurricanes work, I just share my past experiences with a hopeful outlook. I’m usually messaging with FB friends for hours and enjoy it. This time as Hurricane Dorian approached, I was days out of surgery and sleeping a ton. I didn’t have time for much messaging but wouldn’t turn any down. “Give me the energy to respond or guide me otherwise.” Next time I checked my FB news feed, I saw for the first time one of Aah Jim‘s Don’t Panic weather updates. Woot! Prayers answers at the moment of asking. I sent a friend request and began sharing his posts. Lots of FBF found him and we were all comforted by his REAL FACTS info and explanation of the how and why of the storm itself. I asked if I could Paypal him some $$ and he declined. No one has ever done that. “This is a labor of Love to counter the forces of Fear in our lives,” he said. “This is a private weather service provided to my friends and their friends receiving no government funding and no corporate sponsorship. Be strong against the forces of fear and chaos, and above all Don’t Panic.”
This is sacred work, keeping everyone in the know while helping them keep calm. I was glad to find and share his posts, to learn from an expert in the field what was really happening, since the news and weather always exaggerate every ‘cane into the storm of the century. It greatly cut down on the amount of stress and anxiety I and my friends felt. Yes, I still prepared as if there might be a Florida hit or pass over, but knew right away, according to all the models and info he shared, there wouldn’t be nearly what mainstream media said there’d be. Bless those who take it as a sacred duty to help bring FACTS, a voice of reason, peace and comfort to those in need of it in times of distress. Continue reading →

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Tuesday 9pm update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat. “

Jim writes: This is your 9pm Dont Panic Weather Update: Dorian’s overall strength has dropped to a cat 2. It is hitting Florida with its weak western edge producing 30-40 mph sustained winds and short 65 mph gusts. Its following the projected track and should stay off the coast past Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. In my last post I made listed Tues am instead of Wed am. Here’s the lastest max winds updated to show slightly lower windspeeds due to the dropping strength of Dorian. Continue reading →

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Tuesday 6pm update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat. “

Jim writes: This is the 6pm EDT update for the Dont Panic Weather Service, expect Dorian to continue to follow the predicted path but progressively lose strength and slightly gain speed especially once it heads NE instead of North. It will be gusty all night Tuesday, with winds from the North, once they turn NW you are getting the worst of the winds. When they turn west going into Wednesday the storm is moving past you and when they are out of the southwest late Wednesday the storm has past. Expect short gusts of up to 65 mph, the sustained winds much less. The max sustained windspeeds and times of arrival should be pretty close at this point: Continue reading →

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Tuesday 2pm update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat. “

Jim writes: This is a quick 2pm update for the Dont Panic Weather Service. Dorian is following its expected track. It should speed up slightly arriving at the predicted time to your city an hr or two early. Still will be wed before it’s past Florida. Wind speeds have dropped slightly. Expect a max sustained wind speed of 30 to 42. Max short gust 65 mph. Storm surge 2 to 7 most in the low range. Stay calm. The light is at the end of the tunnel! Continue reading →

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Tuesday 7am and 8am update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat. “

Jim writes: Good Morning! Time for the 7am Dont Panic Weather Update: Dorian is barely creeping out of the Bahamas northward still on track to give Florida a glancing blow. The projections have been calling for an incredibly slow movement and Dorian has lived up to the predictions. The timing and max winds speeds predicted last night are still valid. Expect gusty winds all day today with the max sustained winds less than 50mph coming out of the NW tonight then lots of gusty winds all day tomorrow out of the W and SW. Storm surge and beach erosion will mostly happen prior to the peak winds tonight, once the maximum NW winds start it will actually blow the water back towards the ocean. So there you have it, all the facts and none of the drama, Stay calm, no cause for panic, one more day and the worst will be over. Continue reading →

Andrea de Michaelis – Creating my own reality, one thought at a time

THIS IS MY PERSONAL BLOG