Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Tuesday 2pm update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat. “

Jim writes:  This is a quick 2pm update for the Dont Panic Weather Service. Dorian is following its expected track. It should speed up slightly arriving at the predicted time to your city an hr or two early. Still will be wed before it’s past Florida. Wind speeds have dropped slightly. Expect a max sustained wind speed of 30 to 42. Max short gust 65 mph. Storm surge 2 to 7 most in the low range. Stay calm. The light is at the end of the tunnel! Continue reading

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Tuesday 7am and 8am update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat. “

Jim writes:  Good Morning! Time for the 7am Dont Panic Weather Update: Dorian is barely creeping out of the Bahamas northward still on track to give Florida a glancing blow. The projections have been calling for an incredibly slow movement and Dorian has lived up to the predictions. The timing and max winds speeds predicted last night are still valid. Expect gusty winds all day today with the max sustained winds less than 50mph coming out of the NW tonight then lots of gusty winds all day tomorrow out of the W and SW. Storm surge and beach erosion will mostly happen prior to the peak winds tonight, once the maximum NW winds start it will actually blow the water back towards the ocean. So there you have it, all the facts and none of the drama, Stay calm, no cause for panic, one more day and the worst will be over. Continue reading

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Monday 11:30pm update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat. “

Jim writes:  This is your Dont Panic Weather Update for 1130PM EDT.  Dorian has finally started its first baby steps north.  Shown is the projected path of Dorian, the models are very tight and should be very accurate at this point. If you’ve followed these updates from the beginning you will remember I pointed out the weaknesses in the models at every step so when I have confidence in them now it is because the conditions reflect their predictions accurately.  Continue reading

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Monday 3pm Don’t Panic update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat.

Jim writes:  Time for the 3 pm update from the Dont Panic Weather Service. Dorian continues to stall over Grand Bahama Island. Its wind distribution is indicated in the diagram. Grand Bahama will continue to be hit with the high speed eye wall of Dorian but expected top sustained wind speeds there have dropped to 94 mph. Continue reading

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Monday 11am Don’t Panic update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in easy to understand language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat.

Jim writes: This the Dont Panic Weather Update 11 am EDT, Monday. Dorian is still creeping slightly west across Bahama as anticipated by the weather models. Currently the winds there are 67 out of the west but Dorian will continue to pummel Grand Bahama Island for the next twelve hours with its powerful eastern eye wall bringing winds up to 122 mph. Then Dorian will be pulled northward paralleling the Florida coast. Fortunately Florida is projected to only receive impacts by the much weaker western fringe with max winds in the 30-53 mph range. As Dorian leaves the Bahamas overnight tonight it will enter less warm water causing its to be a weak cat 4 and then a cat 3 as it passes Cape Canaveral. Expected max winds we reported three hours ago are still right on, the projections move the arrival time of the max winds in your area by about one hour earlier. 4 to 7 ft storm surge possible Brevard County south to Jupiter Inlet FL. 2 to 4 ft: storm surge possible south of jupiter inlet to west palm beach. The most powerful winds coming from the west should blow water away from land and reduce magnitude of storm surge. Very little change in the forecast is expected today but rest assured if anything changes we’ll be giving you the facts without the hurricane force spin of the media. Stay safe, stay calm, and whatever you do, dont panic!

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Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Monday 7am Don’t Panic update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in easy to understand language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat.

Jim writes: This is the Dont Panic Weather update for 7am EDT. Though it is expected that wind gust of over 75 mph will occur on the beaches and open areas like the Indian River Lagoon, projected sustained winds will top out in the 40s or low 50s mph. Winds will already start climbing starting this morning in the south with winds in Ft Pierce in the 30 mph range out of the north. By 3 am Tuesday winds are projected to be in the 40 mph range. By 6 am the winds will shift to the NW and then peak at around 49mph at around 3pm. Heavy winds will continue in the 40s out of the west then drop into the 30s from the SW and into the 20s, Wed morning.  Continue reading

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Monday 6am Don’t Panic update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in easy to understand language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat.

This is the 6 am Dont Panic Weather report. The major models are in strong agreement that Dorian will hold to the projected track off Florida’s coast since the atmospheric conditions remain favorable for that track and it is a track consistent with how hurricanes historically behave once they move north into these latitudes. There are some fake projections out there showing Dorian expected to have a Florida landfall and comparing the track to Irma, disregard! The map they are using is two days old and was revised hours after the models created it.   Continue reading

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Monday 5am Don’t Panic update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in easy to understand language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat.

Jim writes: This is the 5 am Dont Panic Weather Report. The model predictions are holding steady with the projected course off Florida getting tighter as time goes by.    Continue reading

Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Sunday midnight update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in easy to understand language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat.

Jim writes: Its time again for another Dont Panic Weather Update, the midnight Sunday edition. No change in expected trajectory of Dorian, top wind speeds on the Florida coast based on current models is projected to be 51 mph. Right now Dorian is moving on top of Grand Bahama Island, the wind speed is a sustained 52 mph. It is predicted to max out at 110 mph at noon tomorrow. All the talk about super highwind speeds appear to be references to temporary gusts of wind not sustained winds. The wind speed is projected to be much higher there because the storm track should hit Grand Bahama with the inner eastern eye wall which is the highest wind speed in Dorian and all Atlantic hurricanes. Just after my last update I posted a wind map of Dorian, its outer western band that is going to impact Florida is in the 44 – 51 mph range and those are the predicted max wind speeds for Florida’s eastern cities, away from the coast the max winds drop off sharply first to 35 in orlando and 15 in tampa. Expect temporary wind gusts of 75 or greater at the beach which is one of the reasons we are under a hurricane watch. Continue reading

Aah Jim, local Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Sunday 8:00pm update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in easy to understand language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat.
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im writes: Time for the Dont Panic Weather update for 8pm. Dorian continues to stall out as it hits the Bahamas as all the models projected. It will remain in the Bahamas, creeping along barely moving west and drifting slightly north along the expected track until late Monday, early morning Tuesday. This will feel like the longest labor day in history waiting for it to finally move! All the major models then project that Dorian will head north paralleling Florida’s coast. This will bring it into progressively less warm waters and its winds are expected to drop to Cat 4 then Cat 3 as it moves north. The heavy rainfall and high winds battering the Bahamas are not expected to be repeated on Florida because Dorian is projected to remain off shore and never make landfall. The glancing blow from just the western edge of Dorian will have a wind speed of only about 44 mph. You can see the wind structure in the diagram below. The projected wind speeds for Florida’s eastern cities are 30-50 mph. See my last post for individual cities wind estimates, they haven’t changed since my 2pm post.  Continue reading