Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Tuesday 6pm update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in plain language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat. “

Jim writes:  This is the 6pm EDT update for the Dont Panic Weather Service, expect Dorian to continue to follow the predicted path but progressively lose strength and slightly gain speed especially once it heads NE instead of North. It will be gusty all night Tuesday, with winds from the North, once they turn NW you are getting the worst of the winds. When they turn west going into Wednesday the storm is moving past you and when they are out of the southwest late Wednesday the storm has past. Expect short gusts of up to 65 mph, the sustained winds much less. The max sustained windspeeds and times of arrival should be pretty close at this point:

Jacksonville max winds spd 39 mph from the North Wed 3pm
Daytona max wind spd 44 mph from the NW Wed 9 am
Cocoa Beach max wind spd 47 from the NW Wed 3 am
Melbourne Beach max wind spd 44 from NW Wed at 3 am
Palm Bay max wind spd 34 from the NW Wed at 3 am
Vero Beach max wind spd 36 from the NW Wed at 3 am
Fort Pierce max wind spd 34 from the W Wed at 3 am
Stuart max wind spd 36 from the NW right now 6 pm
West Palm Beach max wind 32 from the NW right now 6pm
Miami Beach no effect, just gusts

Here are the max wind estimates for away from the coast.

Orlando max wind spd 33 max from the NW Wed 3am
No effect on winds on the west coast of Florida.

Storm surge is expected to be 2-7 ft with a middle value most likely. Ocean heights will be suppressed once the winds shift to the NW which will be their highest speeds, pushing water away from shore.

So that is all she wrote. Stay calm, the storm will soon be passing.

 

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