Aah Jim, Coastal Storm Expert in Disaster Recovery, Monday 11am Don’t Panic update on Hurricane Dorian

Aah Jim is a local coastal storm expert in disaster recovery who researches the hurricanes and gives no nonsense reporting about them in easy to understand language. Read his prior updates for important info about how hurricanes work, i.e. “It doesn’t matter what the top windspeed of a storm is if it stays out in the Atlantic. it does not matter what the wind speed of the narrow eastern eyewall of Dorian is doing if that eyewall is not expected to come close to Florida. No matter how big a hurricane is, once it drives completely up on land it dramatically weakens, it needs to hit a warm open body of water again before it can pose a major threat.

Jim writes: This the Dont Panic Weather Update 11 am EDT, Monday. Dorian is still creeping slightly west across Bahama as anticipated by the weather models. Currently the winds there are 67 out of the west but Dorian will continue to pummel Grand Bahama Island for the next twelve hours with its powerful eastern eye wall bringing winds up to 122 mph. Then Dorian will be pulled northward paralleling the Florida coast. Fortunately Florida is projected to only receive impacts by the much weaker western fringe with max winds in the 30-53 mph range. As Dorian leaves the Bahamas overnight tonight it will enter less warm water causing its to be a weak cat 4 and then a cat 3 as it passes Cape Canaveral. Expected max winds we reported three hours ago are still right on, the projections move the arrival time of the max winds in your area by about one hour earlier. 4 to 7 ft storm surge possible Brevard County south to Jupiter Inlet FL. 2 to 4 ft: storm surge possible south of jupiter inlet to west palm beach. The most powerful winds coming from the west should blow water away from land and reduce magnitude of storm surge. Very little change in the forecast is expected today but rest assured if anything changes we’ll be giving you the facts without the hurricane force spin of the media. Stay safe, stay calm, and whatever you do, dont panic!

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